THE PERILS OF LONG TERM WEATHER FORECASTING
Punxsutawney Phil, the internationally famous weather forecasting groundhog, was rustled from his winter slumber Sunday morning to answer the perennial question: shadow or no shadow? Six more weeks of winter or an early spring?
Phil did his climate modelling, he saw his shadow, so: 6 more weeks of winter.
Scientifically speaking, however, long-range forecasting is at best a crapshoot.
“The ability to predict events that far in advance is zero,” says Penn State meteorologist Paul Knight in an article on the Farmers’ Almanac methods. “There’s no proven skill, there’s no technique that’s agreed upon in science to be able to do that.”
It turns out that Phil’s only 39 percent accurate, about the same as The Farmers’ Almanac and its rival, The Old Farmer’s Almanac.
Modified from The Two-Way : NPR || PHOTO: Keith Srakocic/AP